I tipped the 1,113-1 Kentucky Derby trifecta last year - here are my three for 2025 race

The tipster who predicted the one-two-three finish to the 2024 Kentucky Derby has announced her picks for this year’s race. The Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville before a TV audience of millions.

Picking the winner of the first leg of the US Triple Crown series is never easy with the last three winners returning at odds of 186-10, 152-10 and 81-1. Yet one expert managed to find last year’s winner Mystik Dan and not only that, picked the next two past the post.

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In a blanket finish, decided by two noses, Mystik Dan defeated Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Combined they paid a trifecta dividend ot $1,113.84 to a $1 stake.

There was no fluke as Kaitlin Free, who is a reporter and analyst based in Kentucky, had given her picks and explained her thinking in an interview with Carlos Morales, host of the hispanic racing channel Agentes305, who shared it in a viral post on X, watched 1.2 million times.

Morales tracked Free down again at Churchill Downs to get her latest thoughts on Saturday’s big race and she suggested the outcome of this year’s race may be a little bit more ‘cut and dried’ than in 2024.

“My two A’s in this race are going to be Journalism and Sovereignty,” she said. “I think they are everyone’s A’s. Luxor Cafe is one I have danced around a little bit.

“Journalism is one of the most well-rounded candidates to come into the Kentucky Derby in recent years, kind of a la American Pharoah or California Chrome. I think he really stands out in this race, not necessarily from a physical standpoint but also mentally.

“Everything as far as the hoop-la of the Kentucky Derby, I don’t think it’s going to bother him whereas it’s going to bother some others.

“The pace, he’s tactical but he definitely has that late closing kick. I think he is going to be able to get the jump on all the other closers in the race. Umberto Rispoli just has to stay on and keep him out of a lot of trouble. So it’s Journalism for me on top.”

She continued: “Sovereignty is a horse that’s continued to do well. I didn’t mind his run in the Florida Derby. I think it makes his price better. I believe he is third or fourth choice and that’s more than fair value.

“He’s a horse that’s a little bit tough to ride, a little quirky, and I think Junior Alvarado is the perfect fit for him. I think this horse way moves up, getting back under Junior Alvarado. I think that’s a difference maker. I really think this horse is the strongest of all the closers in this field. So look for him to be running late at the mile-and-a-quarter. It’s definitely going to be his friend.

“At the price I am going to throw in, like I threw in Mystik Dan last year and happened to get lucky, is Chunk Of Gold. Coming in from Turfway Park, that’s his base. He ran in Louisiana races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Ethan West said the distance is not going to be a problem for this horse. He is a dirt horse more so than an all-weather type of horse.

“He has a funky action over the all-weather that straightens out a bit in the Kentucky Derby dirt. Jareth Loveberry, like Brian Hernandez Jr, is a ground-saving type of rider. We saw him win it almost on Two Phills with Mage. He is a perfect fit for a horse like Chunk Of Gold who does a remind me a bit of Two Phills.

“He told us coming in off his most recent work on Chunk Of Gold that the gallop out gave him chills.”

She added: “I’m not as high on Luxor Cafe as I was for Forever Young last year but on numbers and figures he is very comparable. If he can bring that form in Japan to here, he is a player too.”